Buying Treehouse Foods in the morning!

 

Finviz

TreeHouse Foods, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged food and beverage manufacturer in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Baked Goods, Beverages, and Meal Solutions segments. The Baked Goods segment offers candies, cookies, crackers, in-store bakery products, pita chips, pretzels, refrigerated dough, retail griddle waffles, pancakes, French toasts, bars, and ready-to-eat cereals. The Beverages segment offers broths, liquid non-dairy creamers, non-dairy powdered creamers, powdered drinks, single serve hot beverages, specialty teas, and sweeteners. The Meal Solutions segment provides aseptic cheese and pudding products; baking and mix powders; hot cereals; jams, preserves, and jellies; macaroni and cheese; mayonnaise; Mexican, barbeque, and other sauces; pastas; pickles and related products; powdered soups and gravies; refrigerated and shelf stable dressings and sauces; skillet dinners; and table and flavored syrups. The company sells its products through various distribution channels, including grocery retailers and foodservice distributors, as well as food manufacturers and repackagers of foodservice products. TreeHouse Foods, Inc. was founded in 1862 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.

Some Quick Observations

Basic
Optionable	Yes	I do credit spreads sometimes
Shortable	Yes	I play both sides of the market
Share Price > $5	38.98	No Penny Stocks
Market Cap	2.36B	Must be greater than 300M. We want no Penny Stocks

Valuation
Profitability - Past 5 yrs	-	PE Positive
Profitability Q/Q	13.24	PE Positive
Sales Growth past 5 yrs	7.80%	10% growth the last 5 years
Projected Sales Growth 5 yrs	-1.10%
EPS	-1.64	A negative EPS tells you exactly how much money the company lost per share of outstanding stock, which is why you'll also see it called "net loss per share." If a company with 100 million shares loses $16 million, then its EPS is negative 16 cents.
Book Value per share	32.28

Financial
Debt to Equity	1.21	A good debt to equity ratio is around 1 to 1.5.
Current Ratio	1.7	a current ratio of 1.5 or above is considered healthy, while a ratio of 1 or below suggests the company would struggle to pay its liabilities and might go bankrupt
Quick Ratio	1	A result of 1 is considered to be the normal quick ratio. ... A company that has a quick ratio of less than 1 may not be able to fully pay off its current liabilities in the short term, while a company having a quick ratio higher than 1 can instantly get rid of its current liabilities

Buy it?
Current Price	38.98
Target Price	55.3	Produced by Analysts
Bargain	16.32	A positive number indicates trading under Target Price
Graham Number		Negative number is a good value
Analysts Ranking	1.9	1=Buy 5=Sell
Earning	Nov 05 BMO	Next Earning Date

Pros

• Treehouse Foods has benefited from more people cooking at home and eating at home based on the covi virus situation.

• Recently, Treehouse foods has  improved their gross margins.

• They offer a lot of variety of organic foods and they project an image of a green company.

• They have been expanding their offerings through acquisitions.

Cons

• Shares of treehouse foods have declined recently by 10%

• Since the restaurant industry has declined, the “food away from home” business has declined as well. It is very soft.

• In order to keep their products safe the company has incurred 26 million dollars in Covi19 related costs.

• Their long-term debt increased by 6% based on leasing some facilities in order to produce their product.

Take some action!
THS	TreeHouse Foods Inc.	Expected Profit
Direction	Open Long
Date Opened	11/11/2020
		$36.00
Price Opened	$38.64	Expected Loss
Target Price	$39.80
Stop Loss	$37.67
Number of Shares Purchased	31	$30.00

Backtest Model for Risk Management

Profit

3.00%

Stop Loss

2.50%

Risk Amount

$1,200.00

Base Amount

$5,000.00

Backtest Action: Not all trades taken				Win Loss %	76.92%	$166.85
Trade	Date	Price	Contracts	# bars	% chg	Profit
Short (profit)	5/2/2019	59.16	10	3	-4.46%	26.4
Long (profit)	6/4/2019	52.86	11	4	3.20%	18.59
Short (profit)	7/30/2019	59.68	10	3	-4.83%	28.8
Short (profit)	8/2/2019	57.07	10	2	-6.19%	35.3
Long (profit)	8/30/2019	50.65	11	4	8.59%	47.85
Short (profit)	9/13/2019	58.36	10	5	-3.27%	19.1
Long (profit)	10/11/2019	53.36	11	13	3.86%	22.66
Long (profit)	11/26/2019	49.01	12	6	3.16%	18.6
Long (max loss)	3/2/2020	40.6	14	6	-14.85%	-84.42
Long (max loss)	3/11/2020	37.69	15	2	-6.87%	-38.85
Short (profit)	5/12/2020	52.58	11	5	-3.23%	18.7
Short (profit)	6/1/2020	53.4	11	3	-5.62%	33
Short (max loss)	6/4/2020	49.5	12	3	3.17%	-18.84
Long (profit)	6/29/2020	42.35	14	2	3.42%	20.3
Long (n-bar)	7/1/2020	43.16	13	18	2.59%	14.56
Open Long	11/11/2020	38.64	15	3	0.88%	5.1

Summary 

So, in conclusion, for me treehouse foods is a buy as a midterm play. I will hold this stock over the next two to three months.

To be a successful trader - you need to understand what you're buying or selling, be able to do your own research, and formulate your own opinions and decisions! This my research and my opinion - not a recommendation .  Please do your own research as well. Make your own decisions!